{"schema":"evidence-gated-forecast-evaluation-v1","generated_at":"2026-09-18T12:21:53.177713+00:00","canonical_url":"https://etas2.bboga.com/ai-evaluation","machine_readable_url":"https://etas2.bboga.com/api/evaluation.json","project":{"name":"Evidence-Gated Forecast Test","research_question":"Can a causal evidence gate preserve ETAS-relative information gain while limiting negative transfer from a learned spatial correction?","objective":"Test whether a causal evidence gate preserves ETAS-relative information gain while limiting negative transfer from a learned spatial correction.","contact":"hello@bboga.com","baseline":"ETAS","challenger":"Causal evidence-gated spatial forecast","regions":["california-relm"]},"evidence_status":{"pipeline_status":"attention","protocol_mode":"dry_run","counts_toward_prospective_claim":false,"claim_assessment":"no_prospective_claim_permitted_in_current_dry_run","test_progress":{"phase":"awaiting_scores","planned_days":14,"calendar_start":null,"calendar_end_exclusive":null,"calendar_days_elapsed":0,"calendar_days_remaining":14,"successful_scored_days":0,"missed_calendar_days":0,"unscored_completed_days":0,"provisional_days":0,"final_days":0},"preferred_score_revision_for_description":"provisional","uncertainty_status":"not_available_in_live_dashboard","warning":"A positive live IGPE is descriptive until the frozen event gate and uncertainty criteria are met; few events are not proof that the gated forecast beats ETAS."},"primary_metric":{"name":"paired information gain per earthquake (IGPE)","event_formula":"IG_i = ln(lambda_gated(i) / lambda_ETAS(i))","aggregate_formula":"IGPE = (1/N) * sum_i IG_i","relative_factor_formula":"relative_factor = exp(IGPE)","units":"natural-log units per earthquake","direction":"IGPE > 0 favors the gated forecast; IGPE < 0 favors ETAS.","compensator_contract":"Every published challenger layer preserves the ETAS forecast's total expected rate, so the paired compensator gain is zero by construction."},"live_results":{"latest_target_start":null,"forecast_current":false,"provisional":{"scored_days":0,"scored_events":0,"total_log_likelihood_gain":0.0,"mean_igpe_nat_per_event":null,"relative_factor_exp_igpe":null,"descriptive_direction":"not_available_no_scored_events"},"final":{"scored_days":0,"scored_events":0,"total_log_likelihood_gain":0.0,"mean_igpe_nat_per_event":null,"relative_factor_exp_igpe":null,"descriptive_direction":"not_available_no_scored_events"},"descriptive_result":{"scored_days":0,"scored_events":0,"total_log_likelihood_gain":0.0,"mean_igpe_nat_per_event":null,"relative_factor_exp_igpe":null,"descriptive_direction":"not_available_no_scored_events"},"regions":[{"region_id":"california-relm","name":"California RELM","catalog_source":"USGS ANSS ComCat FDSN","catalog_thresholds":{"minimum_magnitude":2.5,"minimum_depth_km":null,"maximum_depth_km_exclusive":null},"latest_catalog":null,"latest_forecast":null,"operational_status":{"primary_eligible":true,"missed_region_days":0,"consecutive_missed_days":0,"current_consecutive_missed_days":0,"longest_consecutive_missed_days":0,"invalidated_at":null,"invalidation_reason":null},"provisional_result":{"scored_days":0,"scored_events":0,"total_log_likelihood_gain":0.0,"mean_igpe_nat_per_event":null,"relative_factor_exp_igpe":null,"descriptive_direction":"not_available_no_scored_events"},"final_result":{"scored_days":0,"scored_events":0,"total_log_likelihood_gain":0.0,"mean_igpe_nat_per_event":null,"relative_factor_exp_igpe":null,"descriptive_direction":"not_available_no_scored_events"}}],"daily_scores":[]},"operational_integrity":{"published_regions":0,"open_incidents":0,"last_incident_at":null,"last_open_incident_at":null,"pooled_primary_claim_status":"eligible","missed_region_days_are_excluded_not_scored_as_zero":true,"late_forecasts_are_rejected":true,"final_score_catalog_revision_delay_days":7},"evaluation_guidance":["State whether the current protocol is a dry run or a claim-bearing prospective test.","Report event count and scored-day coverage before interpreting IGPE.","Separate provisional scores from catalog-settled final scores.","Inspect each region; do not infer broad geographic generalization from only a pooled mean.","Report missed days, invalidated regions, open incidents, and forecast freshness.","Treat missed_region_days and longest_consecutive_missed_days as historical totals; current_consecutive_missed_days describes the active outage streak.","Do not call the gated forecast superior without the pre-registered event gate and uncertainty analysis.","Do not interpret these rate forecasts as exact earthquake time, location, or magnitude predictions."],"provenance":{"protocol_id":"evidence-gate-california-dry-run-v1","source_commit":"ad3cfcd","locked_files":{"protocol":{"path":"configs/prospective/evidence-gate-california-dry-run-v1.json","sha256":"f2a2f7200fc1553c46363f45e3a7077f634070f324e63cfff7f71038f4e5ab52"},"downtime_policy":{"path":"configs/challenge/ch008-downtime-policy.json","sha256":"94c5a450b37b65a2e918ac19ea787cc888caf37298b88678c185045feb189254"},"challenger_model":{"path":"models/evidence-gate/spatial-evidence-gate-v1.json","sha256":"0c664df52ae82287a409d0231f9b3f6b35383cc0d7c032014763012a78c402fd","expected_sha256":"0c664df52ae82287a409d0231f9b3f6b35383cc0d7c032014763012a78c402fd"},"etas_runtime":{"path":"src/etas_challenge/etas_native.py","sha256":"a833974874e05dcd4f24d914b405da37ee83f99e744cf5c503ec73d886812161","expected_sha256":"a833974874e05dcd4f24d914b405da37ee83f99e744cf5c503ec73d886812161"}},"method_page":"https://etas2.bboga.com/en/about.html","dashboard_api":"https://etas2.bboga.com/api/dashboard"}}