Evidence-Gated Forecast Test

ETAS comparison · California RELM

TR
Connecting—
DRY RUN Calculating status Loading score progress.
0/14 days
Latest target day—UTC
Gated / ETAS—Provisional IGPE
Safe / ETAS—Provisional IGPE
Gate weight—BF20 hurdle
Scored events—0 days
Information gain Loss

Daily information gain

Provisional scores

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Waiting for the first score

Region status

Latest publication and catalog snapshot

RegionForecastTargetCatalogGated / ETASGated / Safe
PUBLISHED FORECAST ARTIFACTS

Daily spatial forecasts

Four hash-locked rate layers published before the target day begins.

Region
Layer

Loading forecast

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Difference
Loading map
ETAS higherGated higher
EVENT-WISE LOG RATE RATIO

Daily multi-model scores

ETAS-relative IGPE and incumbent-relative safety are reported together.

Target dayRevisionEventsSafe / ETASFixed / ETASGated / ETASGated / Safe
No completed target day yet.
LOCKED BEFORE TEST

Test protocol

ETAS, safe, fixed-expert, and BF20 gate contracts remain unchanged.

Study

Scoring

Primary metric
Event-wise log ratio
Compensator difference
0 · mass preserved
Provisional
First complete daily snapshot
Final
After 7 days

Regions